Wise or Why's? Part 1

I have never been a big believer in “conventional wisdom.” Some might argue it is my unconventional nature and even more would attribute it to my general lack of wisdom. However, I proceed blithely in the knowledge that it is simply more enjoyable and possibly more interesting to play the role of Devil’s Advocate.

The conventional wisdom holds that the accelerated presidential primary schedule will lead to at least presumptive if not actual nominees as early as super ‘duper’ Tuesday, February 5th (hereinafter SDT2/5). This is presumed by both parties to be to their advantage as it will give the presidential candidate more time to build support and get out his or her message. Unless Alberto Gonzales’s Justice Department has succeeded in overturning the Law of Unintended Consequences, I would inject a note of caution, to wit, NOT SO FAST!

It should be profoundly disturbing to any rational being to find themselves in agreement with Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) on any subject. It is especially distressing to a conservative such as myself. Yet his quote from an article in Monday’s
Boston Globe, clearly reflects my thinking for quite some time regarding the presidential primary campaign.

”This campaign is not going to be decided on a single day. It may not even be decided on a single day at the convention.”

Perhaps Rep. Kucinich’s clarity and objectivity in this matter is born of the fact that his only meaningful impact on the eventual decision will be as a voter. He consistently polls within the margin of error, indicating he possibly has no support beyond his campaign staff and his immediate family. However, his statement may well prove prophetic. Simply looking at the math it is a virtual certainty that even if all the states currently contemplating moving their primaries to SDT2/5 actually do so, no candidate from either party will garner enough votes on and before that day to secure their party’s nomination.

Based on excellent information at Greenpapers.com, 2,181 delegates are required on the Democratic side and 1,259 for the Republicans. On the night of SDT2/5, only 53.58% or 2,211 of the total delegates for the Democratic nominee will have been decided. In fact, some of those will be “unpledged” and not required to commit their votes until the convention. The numbers are similar for Republicans with only 52.13% of the 2,517 total delegates assigned.

The Democrats assign delegates proportionally in most of their primaries and caucuses/conventions while the Republicans use a “winner-take-all” strategy. Thus, for a Democratic candidate to secure 2,181 committed delegates by SDT2/5 he or she would have to not only win every state, but also win virtually every vote in every state. On the Republican side, the winner-take-all process makes it at least plausible but highly unlikely that a candidate could garner the required 1,259 delegates in the same time frame.

While some candidates may drop out before the Iowa caucuses and at least one Republican is by “conventional wisdom” virtually guaranteed to join the race, none of the top 4 from either party will exit before SDT25 regardless of the outcomes in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. It is a brief two weeks between the New Hampshire primaries and SDT2/5 and however bloodied and battered, the campaigns will hang on to see how many delegates they might pick up in order to have some affect on the conventions and perhaps their future careers.

Check back soon for Part 2 of Wise and Why’s to learn about why I think that John Edwards may be a King Maker in Denver, the Republicans will have an open convention and why, at least at the moment, polls don’t matter…except when they do…and when they don’t.

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